Nine matches into the 2026/27 Premier League season, only six points separate 11th place from the bottom of the table.
Sunderland currently occupy 20th with five points, one behind Nottingham Forest and two behind both Crystal Palace and Manchester United. Coventry City and Fulham sit just two points above the relegation zone, while Ipswich Town, Hull City and Leeds United remain within four points of danger.
With 29 games remaining, no club is close to being cut adrift. However, the underlying figures indicate that several teams face a much greater threat than their league positions suggest.
The table after nine matches
The bottom 10 currently stand as follows:
Newcastle United: 11 points, goal difference -3
Ipswich Town: 11 points, goal difference -4
Hull City: 11 points, goal difference +1
Leeds United: 11 points, goal difference +1
Coventry City: nine points, goal difference -7
Fulham: nine points, goal difference -2
Manchester United: seven points, goal difference -5
Crystal Palace: seven points, goal difference -12
Nottingham Forest: six points, goal difference -6
Sunderland: five points, goal difference -10
Goal difference separates Manchester United from the bottom three. Crystal Palace are 18th despite having the same number of points, while Forest and Sunderland complete the relegation places.
The current safety line is only seven points, but it will rise considerably. Over the past decade, surviving teams have generally required a total in the mid-30s rather than the traditional target of 40.
Using 36 points as a realistic benchmark, Sunderland need another 31 from 29 matches. Forest require 30, Palace and United need 29, while Coventry and Fulham require 27.
Sunderland face the greatest immediate danger
Sunderland have won one of their opening nine matches, drawing two and losing six. Their current rate of 0.56 points per game projects to only 21 over a full season.
They have scored seven goals and conceded 17, producing the second-worst goal difference in the division. A run of four defeats and one draw from five matches has increased the pressure.
The underlying numbers are more…
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