The modern Premier League is more analytical than ever before. Clubs now rely heavily on data models, tactical profiling, and performance metrics such as expected goals (xG) to shape how they play.
But as football becomes more data-driven, a question keeps surfacing among fans and pundits: are we seeing fewer goals from distance because of statistics?
In other words, is the rise of xG making teams reluctant to shoot from outside the box?
The Rise of xG and “Smart” Shooting
Expected goals, or xG, has become one of the most influential metrics in football. It measures the probability of a shot resulting in a goal based on factors like distance, angle, and type of chance.
Simply put: the closer the shot, the higher the xG value.
This has changed decision-making across the game. Players are now encouraged to:
Work the ball into higher-quality areas
Avoid low-percentage long-range efforts
Prioritise cutbacks and central positions
Coaches increasingly value “good shots” over “lots of shots”.
That naturally raises the question: if a 25-yard strike has a low xG value, are players being discouraged from even trying it?
The Traditional Spectacle of Long-Range Goals
Long-range goals have always been one of football’s most exciting moments. They often come from players who can break tactical structure with individual brilliance.
Think of moments like long-distance strikes from players such as Steven Gerrard or Wayne Rooney in earlier Premier League eras — goals that seemed to defy tactical logic and statistical expectation.
These types of goals are often low probability but high impact emotionally. They lift stadiums, shift momentum, and create highlight moments that define seasons.
However, they are also statistically inefficient.
From an xG perspective, many long-range shots might only have a 2–5% chance of going in. Over time, teams that consistently take those shots without creating better alternatives will score fewer goals overall.
That is the central argument behind modern shot selection.
Are Players Actually Shooting Less?
The data suggests something subtle is happening:…
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