The Premier League table provides the clearest account of what has already happened. Underlying statistics attempt to explain why it happened and, more importantly, what is likely to happen next.
Goals, wins and clean sheets determine where a team finishes, but they can be heavily influenced by finishing streaks, individual errors and narrow margins. A club can collect strong results without playing particularly well, just as another can produce encouraging performances without receiving an immediate reward.
The most useful predictive statistics look beyond the result. Expected goals, expected-goal difference, shot quality and territorial control can provide a better indication of whether a team’s form is sustainable.
Early figures from 2026/27 reinforce that point. After six rounds, the order of the actual table did not entirely match the expected-points standings. Some clubs were converting chances or surviving defensive pressure at unsustainable rates, while others had performances that were stronger than their points totals suggested.
No single metric tells the full story, but some are considerably more revealing than others.
Expected-Goal Difference
Expected goals, commonly shortened to xG, estimates the likelihood of a shot becoming a goal based on factors such as its location, angle and type of assist.
A penalty carries a much higher value than a speculative attempt from distance because it is converted far more frequently. Adding the value of every chance gives each team an attacking xG total.
Expected-goal difference subtracts expected goals against from expected goals created. It therefore measures performance at both ends of the pitch:
Expected-goal difference = xG created ? xG conceded
This is one of the most useful indicators of long-term strength. A consistently positive figure suggests that a team is creating better chances than it allows, even if individual results do not yet reflect that advantage.
By 14 October 2026, Arsenal had the best expected-goal difference per match in the Premier League at approximately +0.79. Manchester United and Manchester City followed at approximately +0.67 and +0.66…
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